This will probably strike you as shocking, but I haven’t seen a single Frogs game yet this year. Sort of like the West Virginia preview I won’t be trying to convince you otherwise and pretend to be knowledgeable on TCU’s team. But let’s just say they’re struggling. The best win by Ken Pomeroy ratings is over Southern who is ranked 114th by a score of 68-57. The Cyclones beat Southern on opening night by 23. That said any road trip in the Big 12 is still a road trip and while winning in Fort Worth shouldn’t be as difficult as Lawrence, it still isn’t automatic.
While my personal knowledge is lacking I do have some data and info to present and gather some observations. The player impact ratings are below and the obvious first conclusion to me is that the only real red spot that shows up in any of the scoring categories for TCU is Garlon Green for taking 23.8% of his team’s shots when he’s on the court.
The best Frog points per field goal attempt is Devonta Abron who only plays 33.8 possessions per game. ABron also sports the best eFG% for TCU with 56.4%.
TCU is not only very inefficient as an offense but they are playing at an incredibly slow pace. TCU averages just 61.2 possessions per 40 minutes while Iowa State averages 72.6, which is quite the difference in tempo. TCU is scoring just 0.90 points per possession which is dead last in the Big 12.
But that isn’t the only area they are last in the league offensively. TCU only grades out in the top half of the league in a couple of areas; opponent steal percentage and three point field goal percentage. To this point the Cyclone defense is in the middle of the pack with the rest of the league except in rebounding percentage where Iowa State is still tops in the conference.
When the Cyclones have the ball…
Iowa State is the top scoring team in the league now at 1.12 points per possession largely due to making 6.45 three pointers per 50 possessions and shooting 52.48% in effective field goal percentage. The Cyclones also have the third best rebounding percentage, assist rate, field goal percentage, and block percentage.
While TCU plays slow to grind things out with their lackluster offense their defense isn’t doing half bad by allowing just 0.90 points per possession which is 5th in the Big 12. Their rebound percentage of 68.5% is middle of the road and their opponent three point field goal percentage also churns out at 5th best. They aren’t recording a whole lot of steals but their opponents are turning it over at the 4th highest clip in the league.
On paper the Cyclones should have no problems with TCU, even on the road. Ken Pomeroy gives Iowa State a 91% chance of winning and TCU has already lost to Texas Tech, Houston, and Southern Methodist at home. If Iowa State comes out and plays with some focus and discipline at both ends then Iowa State will be just fine. It will move them to plus one in the “Tim Floyd Standings” and give them their first road win in the Big 12 on the season. Heading in to a similar road game on Wednesday back in Lubbock.